Indonesia Study Group 2024
7 November - Siswo Pramono
Reflections on Australia-Indonesia relations: The role of critical industries in the future
About the seminar
In this special ISG, His Excellency Dr SIswo Pramono, Ambassador of Indonesia to Australia, presented seminar about Indonesia’s quest to position itself as one of the key players in the global critical industry sector. He highlighted Indonesia’s contribution to energy transition in the Indo-Pacific, and priorities of the new Indonesian leader in critical industry and energy sectors. Discussion from Emeritus Professor Hal Hill touched on the broader economic relations and the regional context of the Australia – Indonesia relationship, while Dr Elly Kent will discussed people-to-people initiatives between the two countries, with a focus on youth, education, art and cultural sectors.
6 November - Greg Fealy
Religious Moderation and Political Control: Critiquing Indonesia’s Religious Diplomacy
About the seminar
During Jokowi’s presidency, religious diplomacy has become a major element in Indonesia’s foreign policy. In particular, Indonesia has cast itself as a bastion of Islamic moderation which other Muslim-majority nations should emulate. Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Indonesia’s largest Islamic organisation, has become a key partner in this process and its concepts of Islam Nusantara and Humanitarian Islam have featured prominently in official diplomatic messaging. The NU-organised R20 conference which preceded the November 2022 G20 in Bali was the highpoint in this process. Both Western and Middle-Eastern political leaders routinely praise Indonesia for its putative moderate Islam and often engage in collaborative programs promoting religious moderation.
This seminar will critique this form of diplomacy and will argue that moderation is in fact being used for the purposes of political control, both by the Indonesian government and many of its ‘partners’ in the Middle East. It contends that Indonesia and other states, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, are engaged in ‘moderation washing’ as they use Indonesia’s reputation for moderation to improve their own reputation in the global community.
23 October - Zulfan Tadjoeddin
Democracy and/or Development? Reflecting on the Lee thesis in Indonesia
About the seminar
Indonesia’s democratic transition was a success, and now is in the third decade of democratic experience. But it has been backsliding, bringing the country to the edge of competitive authoritarianism. During the three-decades of Suharto’s authoritarian rule, the economy grew at 7% annually, while the democratic Indonesia grew only at around 5%. Higher authoritarian growth resonates with the so-called Lee thesis, popularised by the founding Prime Minister of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew. It is argued that that development requires some restraints on democracy, famously put as a choice between two “D’s” - democracy and development or between democracy and discipline. Its proponents hold the view that poor developing countries are not fit for democracy.
The Lee thesis is supported by high growth phases under the authoritarian rules of Singapore under Lee himself, Mahathir’s Malaysia, Park Chung-hee’s South Korea, and Chiang Kai-shek’s Taiwan. Authoritarian China’s phenomenal growth since the early 1990s has also provided credence to the thesis. Thus, temptations to authoritarianism can also be seen in other developing Asian and African countries. However, it is argued that democratic growth is more stable and more resilient to crises. AK Sen argued that it is wrong to ask whether a country is fit for democracy; rather a country becomes fit through democracy. Entering the second half of the third decade of its current democratic experience, Indonesia will have to decide whether to stay with the path of democratic growth or returning to an authoritarian path.
2 October - Lian Sinclair
Undermining Resistance: Contesting extractivism in Indonesia
About the seminar
Literature on mining conflicts is divided by methodological and ontological focus on particular types of institutions, actors and scales of contestation. This produces some wildly contradictory conclusions. For example, literature on ‘resource nationalism’ starts with the observation that states have increasingly been able to assert more interventionist control over foreign investment in mining sectors and the profits from extractive industries. This is especially so in Indonesia, where resource nationalism has been most successful in transferring assets from western multinational miners to domestic conglomerates. On the other hand, authors focused on corporate social responsibility and participation at local scales observe that state institutions are withdrawing from community development and environmental management. They see this as evidence of neoliberalism ‘rolling back’ the state.
Both sets of authors are correct, and both produce valuable insights within their own scalar and institutional foci. But how can we have a state that is powerfully expropriating some of the most notorious multinational corporations and simultaneously withering before neoliberalism? The answer, of course, is the way powerful actors strategically contest issues at scales, or across multiple scales, that are the most beneficial to their interests. Of course, the strategies of the powerful are a reaction to the resistance of people affected by mining.
Chapter three of my new book Undermining Resistance: The governance of participation by multinational mining corporations (Mancherster University Press) applies such a framework to Indonesia. It charts the shifting alliances between multinational corporations, domestic conglomerates, the military and powerful politicians in the national government from the colonial, New Order and decentralisation eras, through the resource nationalism of the 2010s until the current ‘green-developmentalist’ and ‘new-authoritarian’ approaches has seen a rush of Chinese capital into the nickel industry driven by the global push for electric vehicles and decarbonisation.
26 September - Maria Monica Wihardja
How did Indonesian voters respond to disinformation and election propaganda? Evidence from a national panel survey
About the seminar
During the recent Indonesia’s presidential election campaigns, disinformation and election propaganda narratives were circulated around, including those with AI-generated contents. In this context, Muhtadi and Wihardja (2024) study the prevalence of ‘selective exposure’ and ‘selective belief’ among Indonesian voters in relation to the circulation of disinformation with and without AI-generated contents during the 2024 election campaigns. ‘Selective exposure’ and ‘selective belief’ refer to the phenomena of how voters’ likelihood to hear/read/watch and to believe certain disinformation and election propaganda narratives depend on their partisan beliefs and alignments (Neyazi and Muhtadi, 2021). We show preliminary evidence of ‘selective exposure’ and ‘selective belief’ in how Indonesian voters were exposed to and perceived the veracity of both AI-generated deepfakes and non-AI generated disinformation and election propaganda narratives. While loyal supporters to a presidential candidate may exert personality-based partisan biases when receiving election-related information, disinformation and election propaganda narratives may sway voting preferences of those who were initially undecided or were not loyalists of a presidential candidate (termed as ‘swing voters’). We also show preliminary evidence how beliefs (not necessarily exposure) in certain election propaganda narratives could still sway votes among ‘swing voters.’
25 September - Trissia Wijaya
The domestic-international nexus of green developmentalism in Indonesia
About the seminar
A global boom in energy transition minerals (ETMs), such as cobalt, nickel, and lithium is underway, driven by appealing policy initiatives by advanced industrialised countries to produce greener technologies, especially battery, electric vehicles (EVs) and AI infrastructure. Indonesia as the largest nickel producer in the world has sought to plug into this boom through an integrated EV manufacturing industry. Central is the resurgence of industrial policies, including downstreaming (the transformation of minerals into refined products including battery and solar panel) and critical mineral export bans, that are dubbed a solution to sustain economic growth, achieve net-zero emissions target, and harness mineral wealth long exploited by foreign multinationals. Combined, these policies have converged with the ideas of green developmentalism, which understand that the condition of environmental crisis can only be overcome through the adoption of state-led national development strategies. This study seeks to unpack actors, strategies, and coalitions that underpin these green developmentalist strategies. It found that two key dynamics have been shaping the trajectory of green developmentalism in the country. First, shifting modes of social relations of production through which extractive conglomerates and key actors are incorporated into new green coalitions harnessing state-imposed downstreaming agenda. Second, the emergence of selective de-risking strategy by the Indonesian state to protect coalitions around transitional regime from financial, geopolitical, and regulatory risks.
3 July - Nur Utaminingsih
Indigeneity and religion in Dea Kaju: Living in mixed worlds
About the seminar
In Angge Buntu Dea Kaju, an indigeneous community in South Sulawesi, Pappasang and Pangngadarang are considered core wisdom. Pappasang is the set of norms passed down through generations and serves as guidelines in daily life, and Pangngadarang is the form of practical rules that have become traditions in various aspects of community life. Both wisdom guide the lives of Angge Buntu people, alongside Islamic teaching and practices. As the younger generation moves into big cities to pursue formal education and alternative economic livelihood, tension arises between preserving traditional customs and embracing new life style and values, including religious considerations. Perspectives gathered from in the community suggest that many young people are not familiar with their ancestral customs and rituals. In some cases, the lack of awareness is accompanied by negative views on Pamali—practices seen to be misaligned with religious teachings. This presentation aims to look at the role of Pappasang and Pangngadarang in Angge Buntu Dea Kaju and discuss how they interact with religions, including Islam. I will highlight the irony and tension among the community as the young members increasingly move out in search of a better life, but away from maintaining the core values of Angge Buntu. I would argue that there is a space for dialogue on religious moderation and tolerance to support the sustainability of local wisdom.
19 June - Susan Olivia
Cigarette demand in Indonesia with controls for cigarette quality
About the seminar
Most studies of cigarette demand ignore quality variation. In general, consumers may respond to price rises by reducing quantity consumed, but also by downgrading the quality of what they consume. If each type of response is not allowed for, what is estimated as a price elasticity of quantity demand will combine the effects of quantity and quality adjustments. We distinguish between 16 brands of cigarettes in Indonesia, where prices of the dearest brands are over double those of the cheapest. Using Indonesian Family Life Survey data, we estimate individual level demand for cigarettes, comparing estimated own-price elasticities when brand-level controls for quality are included and when they are excluded (as in most prior studies). The own-price elasticity of quantity demand for cigarettes purchased is -0.82 if brand effects are ignored, but is just -0.54 once the brand effects are used. There is a similar gap for the price elasticities of cigarettes smoked. We use these results to simulate a 10% rise in the excise tax, and find that the effect of the tax hike in reducing the number of cigarettes smoked would be overstated by 56% if the brand-level controls for quality choice are not used.
21 May - Arya Gaduh
Does performance pay enhance social accountability? Evidence from remote schools in Indonesia
About the seminar
Social accountability offers a viable alternative to top-down supervision of service delivery in remote areas when travel cost renders the latter ineffective. However, this bottom-up approach may not be effective when the community has weak authority relative to the service provider. This paper investigates whether giving communities authority over teacher performance pay improves the effectiveness of social accountability in Indonesia’s remote schools.
17 April - Nicholas Kuipers
Preference mismatch for environmental policy in Indonesia
About the seminar
The study delves into an examination of Indonesian voters and politicians' stances on a range of issues. Concurrent surveys were conducted ahead of the 2024 Indonesian general election. In a subsequent stage, information about voter preferences was randomized and provided to candidates. The findings reveal a disconnection between voters and politicians regarding environmental concerns, with politicians underestimating voter priorities. Providing information about voter preferences led to shifts in politicians' stated policy preferences, particularly on issues where voter support was initially underestimated. However, this information did not influence politicians' support for costly policy measures on environmental issues, nor did it impact their electoral performance.
27 March - Hilman Palaon
Digitising social protection systems: Insight from Indonesia
About the seminar
Indonesia acknowledges the pivotal role of social protection programs in poverty alleviation, emergency response, and inclusive development. The fiscal commitment to these programs ranks among the top three in annual government expenditures, aimed at supporting the poor and vulnerable. Persistent issues in the disbursement process have necessitated a transformative approach. To address it, Indonesia has prioritised a digital reform of its social protection system. This study delves into how Indonesia successfully implemented digital solutions to reform the disbursement of social protection programs and outlines the future agenda.
28 February - Stephen Sherlock
The effects of electoral quotas on women's candidacy and representation in Indonesia
About the seminar
During the last five elections, women’s parliamentary representation has steadily improved, doubling from 8.6 percent in 1999 to 20.7 percent in 2019. During four elections, progressively strengthened quotas on the number of women candidates and their placement on the ballot paper have been imposed. Stephen Sherlock examines quantitative evidence that the progressive strengthening of quotas on women’s political participation in Indonesia has been associated with improved representation of women in the national parliament (DPR). Has the rise in women’s representation in Indonesia been positively influenced by the quotas, and could incremental tightening of quotas see further growth in women’s representation?