Global Seminars 2020
1 December. Titik Anas (Padjadjaran University and Ministry of Finance), Budy Resosudarmo (Australian National University), Tikki Pangestu (National University of Singapore), Liza Munira (Australian National University), M Chatib Basri (University of Indonesia) and Hal Hill (Australian National University). Indonesia and Covid-19: end-of-year reflection and the way forward
In this special webinar, we invited six colleagues for conversations about Indonesia and Covid-19. Professor Budy Resosudarmo talked with Dr Titik Anas on the government's response to the pandemic, Dr Liza Munira discussed public health issues with Professor Tikki Pangestu, and Professor Hal Hill will conversed with Dr Chatib Basri on the economic aspect.
Slides (M Chatib Basri)
25 November. Ross Tapsell (Australian National University), M Taufiqurrahman (The Jakarta Post) and Restu Diantina Putri (Tirto.id). Covid-19 ‘infodemic’ in Indonesia
The UN Secretary-General recently drew attention to the challenge of the global 'infodemic', where 'as Covid-19 spreads, a tsunami of misinformation' is unleashed. This panel will discuss the challenge of information, journalism and the public sphere throughout the Covid-19 pandemic in the context of Indonesia. It will discuss the challenges faced by working journalists, including reporting reliable information and data at a time of great confusion and obfuscation, as well as the difficulties faced by journalists and others given they can't get to 'the field' to understand the situation more closely. At the same time, the advertising revenues for media companies is decreasing during COVID-19, in some companies making professional journalism financially unsustainable.
As 'traditional journalism' declines, many Indonesians now get their 'news' and information from WhatsApp, Facebook, and Instagram, meaning much misinformation, scapegoating and scare-mongering is being unleashed via digital platforms. Various sponsored digital operations are growing, with funds provided to influencers, 'buzzers' and public relations departments to seemingly put a positive 'spin' on the pandemic situation in the country. The panel discussed how to improve Indonesia's rapidly shifting 'information society'. Can Indonesia's professional journalism survive the pandemic? Where to now for Indonesia's digital public sphere?
Slides (Ross Tapsell)
18 November Alin Halimatussadiah (University of Indonesia) and Teuku Riefky (University of Indonesia). Build back better: Covid-19 recovery in Indonesia
The study aims to examine the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on economic, social, and environmental conditions in Indonesia and brings highlights on the recommendations needed to build back better recovery. The recommendations given are based on the identification of available instruments for sustainable recovery that has been done in several countries in the past and the recent trends on the roadmap of countries that pursue more sustainable pathways for post-pandemic. The examination of the current condition as well as the recommendation provided is using a helicopter view, which needs further details in future research.
11 November. Suharti Sutar (DKI Jakarta Government) and Budy Resosudarmo (Australian National University). PSBB and Covid-19 in urban areas of Indonesia: cases of Jakarta and Yogyakarta
In this webinar, we looked at the recent situations in two of the biggest cities in Indonesia: Jakarta and Yogyakarta. We invited Dr Suharti Sutar, Deputy Governor for Population and Settlement Control at DKI Jakarta Government, and Professor Budy Resosudarmo from ANU to cover the issues surrounding restriction policies and coping mechanisms among urban households. Dr Sutar talked about the challenges faced by the DKI government including choosing the right type of restriction and coordinating with the central government. Professor Resosudarmo presented some initial findings from a phone survey in Jakarta and Yogyakarta, he and his team conducted from May to July. He focused on the changes in livelihood in urban areas in response to the pandemic
*PSBB: Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar or large-scale social restrictions.
Detailed information about Covid-19 in DKI Jakarta is available from the Jakarta Government’s Covid-19 Response Team: https://corona.jakarta.go.id/en.
4 November. Roksana Khan (PROSPERA) and Hana Hanifa (PROSPERA). Breaking the glass ceiling: women’s career progression in the Indonesian public sector
The Civil Service in Indonesia employs 4.1 million civil servants—about 2% of population. Women continue to be under-represented in the most senior structural levels. In this webinar, Roksana Khan and Hana Hanifa from Prospera will discuss the glass ceiling barriers that have hindered women’s career progression in Indonesian civil service, some proposed solutions, as well as the relevance of this post Covid-19 pandemic crisis where women were disproportionally affected by job losses.
Presentation material is available upon request.
28 October. Moekti Soejachmoen (Danareksa Research Institute) and Maria Monica Wihardja (The World Bank). Digital economy vs Covid-19: how do firms cope up?
In this webinar we discussed how businesses improve their resilience againts the Covid-19 pandemic by amplifying their use of digital technology. Moekti Soejahmoen (DRI) talked about the findings from DRI’s Pulse Check series and Maria Monica Wihardja presented the findings from The World Bank’s Digital Merchants surveys in Indonesia. They discussed how firms change their strategies, changes in demand for different goods and services, and channels of crisis impacts.
7 October. Ben Bland (Lowy Institute) and Dinna Prapto Raharja (Synergy Policies). Leadership in a time of Covid-19
In this webinar, we discussed the new book written by Ben Bland, Man of Contradictions: Joko Widodo and the Struggle to Remake Indonesia. We invited the author to use his findings to analyse how President Joko Widodo remains remarkably popular despite struggling to implement promised reforms and withering in the face of the Covid-19 crisis. Dinna Prapto Raharja provided comments to the arguments.
30 September. Ririn Purnamasari (The World Bank) and Bambang Suharnoko Sjahrir (The World Bank). High-frequency monitoring of socio-economic impact of Covid-19 on households in Indonesia
The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly evolving. The pandemic and its containment measures have significantly impacted economic activity and livelihoods of households in Indonesia. The Government of Indonesia has already put in place several mitigating measures, but the extent to which these are likely to be adequate is unclear. There is a strong demand for information on the transmission mechanisms of the crisis on the population that could be used to inform the policymaking process by identifying gaps that may require scaling up or redirecting of policy responses as the crisis unfolds. In response to this, the World Bank has been conducting a nationally representative high-frequency (HiFy) phone survey at the household level. This HiFy survey aims to provide a near real-time insights on the socio-economic impacts of the pandemic on households, going deeper on key concerns including employment, food security, access to health, education, coping mechanism, and social assistance.
19 August. John McCarthy (Australian National University), Yunita Winarto (University of Indonesia), Pande Made Kutanegara (Gadjah Mada University) and Rhino Ariefiansyah (University of Indonesia). Covid-19 and rural livelihoods in Indonesia: assessing the consequences of Covid-19 for food security
This paper discusses the emerging impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food security and rural livelihoods in Indonesia. It is based on a rapid assessment commissioned by the Australian Centre for Agricultural Research (ACIAR) and undertaken during May and June. The paper uses online interviews, a social media survey, and a review of available documents and draws on recent food security and stunting data. The assessment focussed on five contexts: rice and vegetable production in Java; fisheries; estate crops in Sumatra and Kalimantan; dryland agriculture in East Nusa Tenggara; and Papuan provinces. First, the paper analyses the profound, variable, and highly dynamic impacts that the pandemic is having on rural livelihoods. As the crisis has revealed vulnerabilities in Indonesia’s complex food systems, second, the paper discusses the opportunity the crisis represents for designing research and policy strategies to address critical problems.
12 August. Melissa Wells (PROSPERA), Bimbika SijapatiBassnett (PROSPERA), Wita Krisanti (Investing in Women) and Ariane Utomo (The University of Melbourne). Gender matters in Indonesia’s Covid-19 policy response
The coronavirus pandemic is creating a health and economic crisis of unprecedented proportions all over the world. While the virus has respected no borders, it has exposed deeply rooted inequalities, including in Indonesia. The government is well aware of the social and economic challenges and has announced massive additional state spending.
The webinar shed light on gender dimensions in the fight against Covid-19 in Indonesia and the path to inclusive economic recovery. The seminar analysed the situation for specific groups, particularly female health and social workers; households headed by women; women workers in the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic; and women running micro-businesses. The seminar reflected on policy measures that hold the most promise, and what more may be needed as Indonesia transitions into ‘the new normal’.
This webinar also brought together gender specialists from other DFAT funded programs and universities to comment and stimulate discussion among members of the audience.
Articles related to this seminar:
Investing in Women: Report: Covid-19 and women’s economic participation.
Investing in Women: Indonesia and Covid-19: impact on the private sector.
Inaya Rakhmani (Universitas Indonesia), Ariane Utomo (University of Melbourne), Catherine Phillips (University of Melbourne), and Diahhadi Setyonaluri (Universitas Indonesia), Covid-19, women and digitised food networks in Jakarta: inequality and resilience.
29 July. Titik Anas (Padjadjaran University and Special Adviser to the Minister of Finance, Republic of Indonesia), Joanna Octavia (University of Warwick) and Chris Manning (Australian National University). Jobs and pandemic: the case of Indonesia
In this webinar, we talked about the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic to labour market in Indonesia. We invited Dr Titik Anas, Ms Joanna Octavia, Dr Chris Manning to the panel. Dr Anas is a special adviser to the Indonesian Minister of Finance and a lecturer at Universitas Padjadjaran. She discussed the government policies to help workers dealing with the pandemic. Ms Octavia is a PhD scholar at the Warwick Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick. She talked about the effect of the pandemic on the displaced, informal sector workers. Dr Manning, an honorary associate professor at the Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, ANU, chaired the seminar and provided an overview of the labour market issues in Indonesia.
22 July. Eva Nisa (Australian National University) and Nava Nuraniyah (Australian National University and Institute for Policy Analysis and Conflict). How religious communities deal with the pandemic
In this webinar, we talked about the role of religion in facing the pandemic. We invited Dr Eva Nisa and Ms Nava Nuraniyah to discuss how religious leaders shape up communities' expectations with regards to the pandemic and how different religious groups respond to the crisis at the grassroots. Dr Nisa is a senior lecturer at the Department of Anthropology, ANU and Nuraniyah is a PhD scholar at the Department of Political and Social Change, ANU and an analyst at the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC).
15 July. Krisna Gupta (Australian National University) and Andree Surianta (Australian National University and the Center for Indonesian Policy Studies). Trade, industry and investment: dealing with Covid-19
Covid-19 has disrupted the flows of trade and investment drastically, forcing all parties, including policymakers, to recalibrate their plans and strategies. In this webinar, we discussed the key impacts of Covid-19 on trade and investment flows to Indonesia, as well as the responding policies. Krisna Gupta (ANU) talked about the recent development in trade and industry, while Andree Surianta (ANU/CIPS) focused on foreign direct investment. Both also touched on some aspects of the IACEPA that has recently come into effect. Deasy Pane (Bappenas) chaired this seminar and provides comments, linking them to the development plan in Indonesia.
8 July. Bambang Brodjonegoro (Minister of Research and Technology/National Research and Development Agency) and Hal Hill (Australian National University). Research on Covid-19 and technology development in Indonesia
As the pandemic is far from being over, we are seeing exponential growth of research on COVID-19, including in Indonesia. With various restrictions in place, the challenges to research undertaking, as well as to technology adoption, also rise. In this webinar, we invited Professor Bambang Brodjonegoro, Minister of Research and Technology/National Research and Innovation Agency, Republic of Indonesia. He talked about research and technology development in Indonesia during COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. The webinar was chaired by Professor Hal Hill of the Australian National University who also gave comments to Professor Brodjonegoro’s presentation.
Slides (Bambang Brodjonegoro)
24 June. Dina Afrianty (La Trobe University), Slamet Thohari (Brawijaya University and AIDRAN), Sharyn Graham Davies (Auckland University of Technology) and Najmah (Sriwijaya University). Covid-19 and vulnerable people
In this webinar, we discussed the impact of Covid-19 on several vulnerable groups in society. Dr Dina Afrianty (La Trobe University) and Mr Slamet Thohari (Universitas Brawijaya and Australia Indonesia Disability Research and Advocacy Networks-AIDRAN) talked about the impact of Covid-19 on people living with disabilities; Dr Sharyn Graham Davies (Auckland University of Technology) and Dr Najmah (Universitas Sriwijaya) focused on the complexity of Covid-19 among health workers in Indonesia, and the prevention of transmission among children.
17 June. Sulfikar Amir (Nanyang Technological University) and Irma Hidayana (LaporCOVID19). Are we ready for the new normal?
The Indonesian government has declared its intention to resume the nation’s activities under the ‘new normal’ protocols. Are we ready? No, according to a study by Social Resilience Lab, Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in collaboration with LaporCOVID19.org. Based on their survey on risk perception of COVID-19 covering more than 3,000 participants in the capital city of Jakarta, they conclude that Jakarta residents are not yet ready to enter the new normal phase. In this webinar, we invited Dr Sulfikar Amir and Dr Irma Hidayana to discuss this matter. Dr Amir is an associate professor at NTU and Dr Hidayana is a co-founder of LaporCOVID19.
Slides (Irma Hidayana)
10 June. Suahasil Nazara (Vice Minister of Finance, Republic of Indonesia) and Peter McCawley (Australian National University). Financing the responses to Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia
While saving lives is the number one priority, almost every country is also struggling to mitigate the socio-economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. National emergency response plans have forced countries to run large deficits and overhaul their budget allocations. In Indonesia, the government and the parliament agreed to temporarily abandon the 3% rule of deficit-to-GDP ratio. But it is still not sufficient. There is also an urgent need for response at the international level. In this webinar, we invited Dr Suahasil Nazara and Dr Peter McCawley to discuss these issues. Dr Nazara is the Vice Minister of Finance, Republic of Indonesia, who is also an economic professor at Universitas Indonesia. He talked about the government’s response in terms of social protection policies and relief financing in Indonesia. Dr McCawley is a Visiting Fellow at the Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, ANU and he discussed the international aid coordination with regards to the fight against the pandemic
This seminar was attended also by Dr Febrio Kacaribu, Head of Badan Kebijakan Fiskal (Fiskal Policy Office) the Indonesian Ministry of Finance and Dr Masyita Crystallin, Special Staff for the Minister of Finance.
3 June. Iwan Jaya Azis (Cornell University). This crisis is different
As the Covid-19 health crisis has transformed into an economic crisis, governments around the world are desperate for measures to dampen the shock. In this webinar, we invited Professor Iwan Jaya Azis of Cornell University. He discussed the unfolding economic crisis from a global perspective and then focus on the impacts in emerging market economies. He highlighted several policy responses in terms of fiscal and monetary stimulus and the prospects for recovery given these measures. This webinar was chaired by Professor Hal Hill of The Australian National University who also gave comments to Professor Azis' presentation.
Slides (Iwan Jaya Azis)
20 May. Arief Anshory Yusuf (Padjadjaran University) & Amalinda Savirani (University of Gadjah Mada). Regional impacts of COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting local dynamics
Once again we explored the complexities of coronavirus outbreak at the sub-national level. This time we invited Dr Arief Yusuf, an economics professor at Universitas Padjajaran and a senior researcher at the Center for Sustainable Development Goals Studies; and Dr Amalinda Savirani, the head of the Department of Politics and Government, Universitas Gajah Mada. Arief Yusuf presented his estimation of the impacts of COVID-19 in terms of socio-economic and regional aspects, and Linda Savirani explored the roles of citizens, both individually and collectively, in dealing with the pandemic. She highlighted the apparent tension between the expression of solidarity within communities and an exclusive attitude against those suspected for potentially spreading the virus.
13 May. Ines Atmosukarto (Australian National University), Anindita Gabriella (University of New South Wales) and Aditya Wardhana (Indonesia AIDS Coalition). The race for coronavirus vaccines and drugs: complexities in Indonesia
The trials of coronavirus vaccine are underway around the world. But it may take years before the vaccine is available, even as all the resources are now directed towards developing it. And when the time comes, there will be complexities, such as health regulations, between a vaccine and/or effective clinical treatment and the general public who need it. In this webinar, we invited Ines Atmosukarto, a scientist at the John Curtin School of Medical Research, ANU and the CEO of Lipotek, a Canberra niche biotech company. She talked about vaccines and drug policy in Indonesia and of whether we are keeping up with the race. To discuss the demand side of drugs, we also invited Anindita Gabriella Sudewo, PhD scholar from UNSW and Aditya Wardhana from the Indonesia AIDS Coalition. They drew a comparison to the experience faced by people living with HIV in Indonesia.
6 May. Sudirman Nasir (Hasanuddin University and Akademi Ilmuwan Muda Indonesia) and Saiful Mahdi (Syiah Kuala University). Coronavirus in Indonesia: regional perspectives
As the prevalence, severity and handling of the COVID-19 outbreak vary greatly worldwide, so too do they vary at the subnational level of countries. The situation is especially complex in a big, archipelagic state such as Indonesia. In this webinar, Sudirman Nasir and Saiful Mahdi discussed COVID-19 from the perspectives of South Sulawesi and Aceh.
29 April. Panji Hadisoemarto (Centre for Sustainable Development Goals and Padjadjaran University). Is COVID-19 the next dengue and tuberculosis for Indonesia?
In this webinar, Panji Hadisoemarto talked about the COVID-19 outbreak in Indonesia. Analysing its trajectory, he compared the outbreak with that of other diseases in Indonesia, such as dengue fever and tuberculosis. He then discussesed some policy options, drawing on lessons from other countries.
Slides (Panji Hadisoemarto)
17 April. Philips J. Vermonte (Centre for Strategic and International Studies), Bivitri Susanti (Center for Indonesian Law and Policy Studies) and Imelda Deinla (Australian National University). Corona-induced tension between regulations and actions
Government regulations are often rigid, complex and carefully considered. Sometimes, however, policymakers must respond quickly to a situation such as the COVID-19 crisis. In this webinar, Philips Vermonte, Bivitri Susanti and Imelda Deinla discussed how governance and regulations interact in this extraordinary time. Vermonte discussed this interaction from a global perspective, while Susanti and Deinla discussed it from the perspectives of Indonesia and the Philippines.
No presentation materials are available for download for this seminar.
8 April. Pandu Riono (University of Indonesia), Manoj Pandey (Australian National University / University of Papua New Guinea) and I Nyoman Sutarsa (Australian National University). Restricting human movements: public health outcomes and economic consequences
Social distancing has been strongly advocated to contain the spread of COVID-19. However, some have argued that stricter measures are needed in Indonesia, such as self-isolation, household quarantine, territorial quarantine and lockdown. This is despite the country’s difficulties with enforcement and compliance, with many of the poor struggling to comply with even the loosest restrictions. In this webinar, epidemiologist Pandu Riono talked about the controversy of social distancing interventions in Indonesia, Manoj Pandey discussed the pros and cons of the lockdown policy in India and I Nyoman Sutarsa discussed the implications of restrictions for the poor, and ways to balance the tension between managing public health risk and economic risk.
1 April. Erick Hansnata (KPMG Consulting), Ari Perdana (Asian Development Bank), Puspa Amri (Sonoma State University) and Haryo Aswicahyono (Centre for Strategic and International Studies). Reading the corona: from gloom to doom, are we doing the right thing?
This seminar looked at the foreign responses to COVID-19 that may work in Indonesia. Erick Hansnata talked about the measures used in Australia, Ari Perdana discussed the policies of Filipino president Rodrigo Duterte, and Puspa Amri talked about the public health responses of various states in the United States—and the huge disaster-relief program rolled out by the US government. Lastly, Haryo Aswicahyono discussed the virus outbreak in Indonesia and the lessons the country can learn from others.
Erick Hansnata is a senior consultant and economist at KPMG Australia. Ari Perdana is an evaluation specialist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Puspa Amri is an assistant professor of economics at Sonoma State University. Haryo Aswicahyono is a senior economist in the Department of Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta.
KEY POINTS
Indonesia can learn from other countries how to scale up public health measures to save lives and how to provide the right economic stimuli.
Countries around the world have seen growing unemployment and business failure due to public health measures intended to delay the spread of COVID-19.
Some countries have developed stimulus packages acting as social safety nets and supporting healthcare systems.
SUMMARY
The number of COVID-19 cases has soared to nearly one million worldwide. Countries have been trying to balance public health and economic considerations to save lives, reduce suffering and mitigate the long-term effects of the virus on businesses and individuals.
The principal public health measures of many countries—such as Australia, the Philippines and the United States—have included various degrees of social distancing and mobility reduction.
Australia has had strict social distancing measures in place to help ‘flatten the curve’ and ensure the healthcare system has enough time to prepare for extra healthcare demand. The Australian government called on states to restrict large events, close schools and restrict indoor and outdoor gatherings to a maximum of two people, after the country reached nearly 2,000 confirmed cases of the virus. It also banned most international and domestic travel.
The Philippines went into ‘soft’ lockdown, with community quarantine held on Luzon Island, where the capital Metro Manila is situated.
United States residents were ordered to stay at home, with some states mandating the order and others advising it.
Various governments directed citzens to distance themselves socially and reduce their mobility. This was followed by the public’s stockpiling of household goods. Over time, the stockpiling decreased and most citizens complied with the government advice. An increasing number of people started to stay at home as they recognised the need to ‘flatten the curve’.
Two major economic effects followed the implementation of strict public health measures in various countries: (1) businesses began to close (especially in the tourism, hospitality, transport and retail sectors; (2) unemployment increased dramatically.
The following countries announced fiscal stimulus plans to support businesses and the unemployed:
Australia, which announced a wage subsidy package to help employers pay staff, an income-support scheme for individuals and households, tax-free cash flow boosts for eligible businesses, increased asset write-off thresholds and greater support for business investment. Changes to rental obligations were also implemented to ease the financial stress of households and businesses affected by COVID-19.
The Philippines, which announced a US$3.9 billion aid and stimulus package, including cash transfers.
The United States, which announced direct cash transfers, a payroll protection program for small businesses, and a loan package for small to large businesses.
More public health measures were released as healthcare systems were burdened by an increasing number of cases:
Australia has 60,000 hospital beds and 2,200 intensive care beds (in public hospitals), with 47,000 doctors and 160,000 nurses available. In response to the pandemic, the country increased its investment in telehealth and mental health services. Agreements with private hospitals were also put into place in various states.
The Philippines has 101,000 hospital beds. The country’s universal health coverage, Philhealth, has helped COVID-19 patients to receive and pay for medical care.
The United States began mass testing and preparing intensive care beds, ventilators, healthcare workers, alternative care sites and personal protection equipment (PPE) for health workers.
Since the start of the outbreak, Indonesia has released three stimulus packages. These initially focused on supporting the economy but then moved towards better balancing that objective with the need to save lives:
On 25 February, a US$724 million stimulus package was released to support the tourism, airline and housing sectors.
On 13 March, a US$8 billion stimulus package was released to provide a tax break for employers, manufacturers and importers.
On 31 March, and Rp405.1 trillion stimulus package was released to to support the economy and the health sector, and to provide social protection for individuals and credit for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Indonesia can learn from other countries how to develop and implement public health measures. If 80% of the population complies with physical-distancing measures, the ‘curve’ may flatten, buying time for the healthcare system to save more lives. Indonesia must implement more drastic public health measures immediately, as social assistance is provided gradually.
25 March. Muhamad Chatib Basri (University of Indonesia) and Rizki Siregar (University of California). Reading the corona: extraordinary measures during an extraordinary time
The COVID-19 outbreak caught the world off guard. Although saving lives has been broadly acknowledged as the priority, balancing this priority with economic considerations has proven very difficult. The investment needed to save lives requires significant financial resources. The measures needed to control the spread of the virus can hinder economic well-being. In the context of both health and the economic considerations, the poor are often the most vulnerable. In this seminar, Muhamad Chatib Basri and Rizki Siregar discussed the health and economic challenges that Indonesian policymakers face in dealing with the COVID-19 outbreak.
Muhamad Chatib Basri is a senior lecturer in the Faculty of Economics and Business at the University of Indonesia. He was also the Indonesian Minister of Finance in 2013–14. Rizki Siregar is a PhD candidate in economics at the University of California, Davis. She and several Indonesian economists are collaborating with the Center for Indonesia’s Strategic Development Initiatives (CISDI) to make recommendations for tackling COVID-19 in Indonesia.
KEY POINTS
COVID-19 is spreading economic suffering worldwide. But the size and persistence of the economic impact can be projected.
Indonesia faces several challenges in reducing the impacts of the pandemic, which include limited healthcare capacity and constrained financial resources.
The impact of the virus on a country depends partly on how fast the government can implement stimulus packages and policies aimed at both the supply and demand sides of the economy.
SUMMARY
There are supply, demand and confidence channels through which the virus can affect the economy.
Supply: significant disruptions in the global supply chain, factory closures and cutbacks in many service-sector activities.
Demand: reductions in business travel, tourism, educational services, and entertainment and leisure services.
Confidence: uncertainty leading to a reduction or delay in the consumption of goods and services, and delayed or foregone investment.
COVID-19 is having a profound and serious impact on the Indonesian economy. The Indonesian Ministry of Finance has predicted that Indonesia’s GDP growth in 2020 will be between 0% and 2.5%. This forecast is in line with a 2020 simulation by ANU researchers Warwick McKibbin and Roshen Fernando, in which GDP growth falls 1.3%–4.7% from its baseline.
Policymakers must support vulnerable households and small businesses to save as many lives as possible and to minimise economic contraction.
Economic policies to support public health are the priority. There is a strong indication that healthcare services in Jakarta and Greater Jakarta have already reached capacity; other parts of Indonesia are not well equipped. The focus should be on supporting investment in the prevention, containment and mitigation of the virus.
Workers and business sectors are the next priority. Some workers and sectors have been hit especially hard by the virus, such as informal workers, and workers in the gig economy and culinary sector.
In the short term, vulnerable households could be given direct transfers to reduce the impact of income loss from work shutdowns and layoffs.
Some policy responses:
Stimulus package 1: staple food provisions, discounted airfares and hotel accomodation, subsidised housing, interventions by Bank Indonesia (market intervention, a lower interest rate and a lower reserve requirement).
Stimulus package 2: tax reductions and the promotion of net-export performance by simplifying export-import procedures.
To achieve long-run economic growth after the pandemic, policymakers could implement countercyclical monetary policy to boost aggregate demand and could seek new opportunities in the global supply chain.
Indonesia should practise social distancing and reduced mobility to flatten the curve. Social distancing can reduce economic activities that require physical presence. However, this reduced activity is the price of containing the virus, regardless of whether the containment measures are voluntary or not.
Policymakers need more financial resources to combat economic fallout.
The Indonesian government is allowing for a budget deficit of up to 5% of GDP.
Indonesia needs local and global cooperation to finance its response to the virus.
It also could seek international support (e.g. paramedic support) from countries such as China, which shares a good relationship with Indonesia.
FURTHER READING
Going the fiscal distance to save Indonesia’s economy from COVID-19 by Muhamad Chatib Basri
Saving lives will save Indonesia’s economy: a poorly prepared country demands decisive action by Rizki Nauli Siregar